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ECRI Business


United States

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ECRI Business - Professional Summary:     


The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the New York-based research institute behind the Weekly Leading Index, has accurately predicted economic downturns and recoveries for decades. Building on the concepts originally developed by cofounder Geoffrey H. Moore, ECRI relies on a collection of leading indicators, coincident indicators, and lagging indicators to track business cycles in the United States and in countries around the world. ECRI maintains leading indexes for economic growth, inflation, and employment. In addition, the institute tracks activity in the service sector, manufacturing, construction, and foreign trade. The interplay between these factors allows ECRI to determine when the business cycle is approaching a point of inflection and to share this detailed information with members. 

ECRI uses more than a century’s worth of economic data to make its predictions. While many economists fall prey to the idea that “this time is different,” ECRI’s researchers focus on the factors that underlie every business cycle and avoid distractions from superfluous information. ECRI members receive information on approaching risks so that they can make informed decisions and shepherd their portfolios, businesses, and governments through difficult economic times. The Economic Cycle Research Institute tracks and predicts recession start and end dates for 20 different nations, which comprise around 80 percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), and produces weekly and monthly reports for its members. In addition, subscribers receive access to a proprietary database of information that updates in real time, as well as personal consultations with ECRI experts. 

As one of the few institutes that understand and assess the risks of global cyclical contagion, ECRI accurately predicts how economic events in one country will affect the global economy. As a public service, the non-partisan research institution makes a small portion of this information available to the press and to the public. In addition, ECRI cofounders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji have written a book on using leading indicators to weather economic downturns. Excerpts from Beating the Business Cycle are available on ECRI’s website and Amazon.com. 


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